President Barack Obama’s
speech Tuesday
to the United Nations was his most significant foreign policy statement
since becoming president. It showed he had clearly learned something
from the recent “red line” fiasco in Syria. The speech also displayed
what has always been the most attractive feature of Obama’s foreign
policy, one that clearly sets him off from his predecessor—his
willingness to court erstwhile enemies and adversaries, or to put it in
negative terms, his not possessing what my former colleague Peter
Scoblic
called an “us versus them” view of the world.
The
speech was a departure in one very obvious way. Two years ago, the
Obama administration had announced a “pivot to Asia” in its foreign
policy, but Obama’s speech to the U.N. was almost entirely devoted to
the greater Middle East with a footnote here or there to Africa. Obama
mentioned China only once—as one of the nations engaged in nuclear
weapons talks with Iran—and didn’t mention Japan or South Korea at all.
That reflects the way the world is: The Middle East is oil—still the
lifeblood of the global economy—and the Middle East continues to suffer
from tectonic fault lines created by the Age of Empire in Europe.
There
were specific departures in the speech from positions that Obama has
taken in the past. The one that will get the most attention, and rightly
so, is American policy toward Iran, but the speech also included
departures in American policy toward Syria, Israel and the Palestinians,
and Egypt and the Arab Spring.
Obama declared his willingness to
pursue a diplomatic solution with Iran over its nuclear program. Of
course, he had done that before, but it was usually punctuated by a
threat of military action if Iran did develop a nuclear weapon. That
threat lingered in the background in his speech; in the foreground, he
acknowledged Iranian fears of the United States, dating from our helping
to overthrow Iran’s government in 1953; he welcomed
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s overtures to the United States;
and he said he was instructing Secretary of State John Kerry to meet
with Iran’s foreign minister—the first such meeting between the
country’s leading diplomats since 2007. The White House has also said it
is “keeping the door open” to a meeting between Obama and Rouhani.
If
Obama does achieve a rapprochement between the United States and Iran,
it could have repercussions throughout the Middle East. It could make a
political settlement in Syria possible. It could ease negotiations
between the Israelis and Palestinians. Israel’s hardliners would no
longer have an excuse for ignoring the West Bank occupation, and Hamas
would no longer have international support in refusing to back a
two-state solution. And, finally, of course, a rapprochement could give
the United States a strong ally in reducing the threat of terrorist
movements in the Middle East and South Asia.
In Syria, the White
House had initially hoped for opposition military successes that would
force Bashar al Assad to leave office. Afterwards, they hoped that
military successes would at least lead to a political settlement
favorable to the opposition and laid out the hope that a military strike
against Assad in retaliation for his use of chemical weapons would
damage his overall military chances. But in Obama’s speech, he came out
foursquare for a political settlement. While condemning Assad, he
suggested that both sides to the conflict were imperfect. He warned of
the danger of “extremists trying to hijack change,” and he declared that
a “political settlement cannot be reached without addressing the
legitimate fears of Alawites and other minorities.” He also held out the
possibility of Iran joining the settlement talks. “I welcome the
influence of
all nations that can help bring about a peaceful
resolution of Syria’s civil war,” he declared. (The emphasis was in
Obama’s prepared text.)
While recognizing that Russia’s Vladimir
Putin must play a vital role in any political settlement, he also
inserted a clever dig at the Russian’s diplomacy. “We are no longer in a
Cold War. There’s no Great Game to be won, nor does America have any
interest in Syria beyond the well-being of its people, the stability of
its neighbors, the elimination of chemical weapons, and ensuring it does
not become a safe-haven for terrorists,” Obama declared.
At
the beginning of Obama’s first term, he made resolving the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict a major priority, and in his initial
speeches and diplomacy, he presented the conflict as one between two
peoples with equal moral claims to have their own state. That infuriated
the Israelis and set off a carousel of recriminations and botched
negotiations that ended in mid-2011 in Obama giving up on trying to
revive the peace process and turning toward attempting to conciliate his
critics in America’s Jewish community. In Obama’s 2011 and 2012
speeches to the United Nations, he emphasized America’s “unshakeable”
commitment to Israel and its “very real security concerns” while giving
scant notice to the “aspirations of the Palestinian people.” In his 2012
speech, he devoted one out of sixty paragraphs to Israel and the
Palestinians.
But in this speech, he made resolving the conflict one of America’s two greatest priorities in the region, along with
reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran.
And his description of the respective moral claims of the Israelis and
Palestinians was conspicuously even-handed. Obama and Secretary of State
John Kerry may still fail—I would give an agreement with Iran a greater
chance of succeeding—but Obama showed that he has gone back to where he
was during the Cairo speech in his first year in office. The peace
process is once again getting Obama’s attention.
In the
immediate aftermath of the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, Obama
had expressed unbounded optimism about the Arab Spring. In a State
Department speech in May 2011, he compared the demonstrators in the
streets to the American revolutionaries of the 1770s and to the civil
rights leaders of the 1950s. And that optimism led the administration to
support intervention in Libya not merely to prevent atrocities, but to
achieve a victory for the opposition. It also nourished hopes that the
opposition would be victorious in Syria.
But these uprisings, like
those in Europe in 1848 or across the Third World after World War II,
have taken two steps forward, only to take one and three-quarters steps
backward. Obama was blind-sided by Assad’s refusal to step down and by
the military coup in Egypt, which he has still refused to call a coup.
In his speech, Obama expressed his realization at “just how hard” the
transition from dictatorship to democracy had proven to be, and he laid
out a diplomatic strategy heavy on
Realpolitik.
In
describing the events in Egypt, Obama blamed President Mohamed Morsi for
his own overthrow. “Morsi,” Obama said, “was democratically elected,
but proved unwilling or unable to govern in a way that was fully
inclusive. The interim government that replaced him responded to the
desires of millions." While criticizing the new military regime for
making “decisions inconsistent with inconclusive government,” he
expressed his intention to maintain amicable relations with it. The
United States,” he declared, will maintain a constructive relationship
with the interim government that promotes core interests like the Camp
David Accords and counter-terrorism.” Obama then broadened that approach
to a general pronouncement about American policy. “The United States,”
he said, “will at times work with governments that do not meet the
highest international expectations, but who work with us on our core
interests.”
That represents a return to Obama’s earlier diplomacy
and a repudiation of the idealism and interventionism of the last few
years. To be sure, Obama did devote part of his speech to America’s
commitment to “the hard work of foreign freedom and democracy” and
“supporting the principles embodied in the Universal Declaration of
Human Rights,” but he foresaw doing so by “asserting principles” rather
than by intervening in other countries. And if what he meant by
“asserting principles” was his criticism of the Egyptian military for
measures “inconsistent with inclusive government,” then the
authoritarian rulers need not fear an American tongue-lashing. He did
urge the United Nations to be prepared to intervene to prevent
atrocities
within nations, but by assigning this task to the United Nations, he denied the United States a leading role in doing so.
In
all, Obama laid out in his U.N. speech a foreign policy that backs away
from the policy he embraced in early 2011 during the first months of
the Arab Spring. That clearly reflects the lessons Obama took from his
failure to win support in Congress or internationally for an attack on
Syria. “The United States has a hard-earned humility when it comes to
our ability to determine events inside other countries. The notion of
American empire may be useful propaganda, but it isn’t borne out by
America’s current policy or public opinion. Indeed, as the recent debate
within the United States over Syria clearly showed, the danger for the
world is not an America that is eager to immerse itself in the affairs
of other countries, or take on every problem in the region as its own.”
The danger of a turn back toward
Realpolitik
is that Obama will abandon even a declaratory attempt to promote human
rights and the stirrings of popular rule in the Middle East. But in
respect to Obama’s willingness to deal with Iran and to throw America’s
weight behind a resolution of the century-old Israel-Palestinian
conflict, Obama’s new turn could lead to astonishingly positive results
in the Middle East. Jim Mann, the author of
The Obamians,
the best introduction to Obama’s foreign policy, cautioned me the other
day against accepting the image of second-term presidents as lame
ducks. In foreign policy, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton achieved their
greatest successes in their second terms, and the same may turn out to
be true of Barack Obama.
source of article
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114839/obamas-united-nations-speech-was-his-most-significant